📈 EconomicsKalshimedium confidence
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Alpha Opportunity
28/100
Market Price85%Kalshi
Analyst Estimate90%Analyst research
=
Your Edge+5.0%Bet YES
RecommendedYESMar 15, 2027
Trade on Kalshi →Alpha Thesis
📊 Dr. Sarah Chen🔬 Dr. Aisha Patel🧠 Marcus Webb⚖️ James KowalskiUpdated 2026-04-04
50/100
📊Free Summary
We evaluate the 85% probability for this macroeconomic market. Macroeconomic indicators are complex to forecast and subject to significant revision risk. The Iran war's oil price impact adds inflationary pressure to all monetary policy calculations. Our estimate: 90%.
📐Key Metrics
1
85.0% vs. 90.0%Market vs. AI EstimateThe market is pricing lower than our research suggests, creating a 5.0% edge.
Key Findings
🔒
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Edge Magnitude+5.0% raw edge — Moderate opportunity
33
Liquidity Health$207K available — Thinner market, size carefully
4
Volume Activity$21K 24h volume — Lower activity, watch for stale pricing
2
Time ValueExpires in 11 months — Longer horizon, more uncertainty
40
Analyst Confidencemedium confidence — Moderate conviction
60
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
🧠
Crowd Mispricing
General market inefficiency detected — the crowd consensus diverges from fundamentals-based analysis.
Market Data
Liquidity$207K
24h Volume$21K
Expected Return5.9%
Resolution DateMar 15, 2027
Time to Expiry11 months
Risk Levelmoderate
Payoff Scenarios
InvestWinLose
$100+$18-$100
$250+$44-$250
$500+$88-$500
$1000+$176-$1000