US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 12.0% vs the market's 73.5%, identifying a 61.5% edge on the NO side. Historically, ceasefires between the US and Iran have been fragile and often short-lived due to underlying tensions and geopolitical interests. The recent ceasefire agreement and ongoing diplomatic efforts mediated by Pakistan suggest a potential for a temporary reduction in hostilities.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical ceasefire agreements between the US and Iran — Historically, ceasefires between the US and Iran have been fragile and often short-lived due to underlying tensions and geopolitical interests.
- Recent ceasefire agreement and ongoing diplomatic efforts — The recent ceasefire agreement and ongoing diplomatic efforts mediated by Pakistan suggest a potential for a temporary reduction in hostilities.
- Probability of no military action, no provocation, and no escalation — The combined probability of the US refraining from military action, Iran avoiding provocations, and no escalation occurring is low, at 0.12.
- Sequential update with inside-view evidence — Starting from a low base rate, the inside-view evidence of recent diplomatic efforts slightly increases the probability, but the overall likelihood remains low.
- Resolution Criteria — The market resolves to 'Yes' if there is a continuous 14-day period without a qualifying military action against Iran, starting from the date of the last qualifying action or market creation. It resolves to 'No' if such a period is not completed.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including 2026 Iran war, 2026 Iran war ceasefire, Is the U.S. at 'War'? Politicians Disagree
Full Research Report
Unlock the complete analysis including probability assessment, Bayesian calculations, resolution rigor analysis, and strategic positioning recommendations across 6+ dimensions.
Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.