10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Overestimating short-term impact (Amara's Law). AI estimates 2% vs market's 6%, suggesting the market overprices this outcome.
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
A magnitude 10.0+ earthquake before 2027 is essentially 0.1%. No 10.0 earthquake has EVER been recorded in history. The largest recorded was the 1960 Great Chilean earthquake at M9.5. A 10.0 would release ~32x more energy than the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake. Most seismologists believe no known fault on Earth can produce a 10.0.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Largest recorded earthquake: M9.5 (Chile, 1960).
- No known fault can produce M10.0. Would require ~1000+ km rupture.
- M10.0 releases 32× more energy than M9.0 (Tōhoku 2011).
- Seismologists consider M10.0 essentially impossible with current tectonic plates.
- 0.1% = allowing for unknown geological processes.
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
Markets at extreme ends tend to be miscalibrated — people overestimate tiny risks or underestimate near-certainties.
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Market Data
Position Sizing
Kelly Criterion (per $1,000 bankroll)