9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Overestimating short-term impact (Amara's Law). AI estimates 7% vs market's 10%, suggesting the market overprices this outcome.
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
A 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 is only ~2%. The annual probability is roughly 0.5-1% globally. USGS gives 10-15% chance for Cascadia in 50 years (~0.3%/year). Adding all subduction zones globally (Japan, Chile, Alaska, Sumatra) gets to ~1-2% per year. The last 9.0+ was Tohoku in 2011.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- USGS: 10-15% chance of Cascadia M8.0-9.0+ in 50 years (~0.3%/year).
- Global M9.0+ rate: ~2 per century = ~2%/year.
- But most are 8.5-8.9. True M9.0+ is rarer: ~1%/year.
- Last M9.0+: Tohoku 2011 (M9.1). Before that: Sumatra 2004 (M9.1).
- For ~1 year window (to end 2027 = ~21 months): ~2%.
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
Markets at extreme ends tend to be miscalibrated — people overestimate tiny risks or underestimate near-certainties.
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Market Data
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Kelly Criterion (per $1,000 bankroll)