Will there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
Crowd consensus diverges from base-rate analysis. AI estimates 18% vs market's 10%, suggesting the market underprices this outcome.
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We estimate 55% probability of 1,700+ measles cases by March 31. CDC reports 1,362 confirmed cases as of March 12, 2026 across 31 jurisdictions. At the current rate of ~19.5 cases/day, the US would reach 1,362 + (19.5 × 19 days) = ~1,732 by March 31 — just above the threshold. The trajectory makes this a coin-flip that slightly favors YES, accounting for potential reporting lags and weekend effects.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- CDC data (March 12): 1,362 confirmed measles cases in 2026 across 31 jurisdictions.
- Daily rate: ~19.5 cases/day — consistent over the past 6 weeks.
- 92% of cases are unvaccinated — anti-vax movement driving sustained spread.
- Math: 1,362 + (19.5 × 19) = ~1,732 — trajectory hits 1,700 around March 29-30.
- Risk factors: reporting lag could delay count; outbreaks can accelerate or decelerate.
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Alpha Quality Factors
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Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Markets at extreme ends tend to be miscalibrated — people overestimate tiny risks or underestimate near-certainties.
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