Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
Informed analysis adjusts for base rates of similar events. AI estimates 12% vs market's 7%, suggesting the market underprices this outcome.
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
A hurricane making US landfall by May 31 is only 3%. The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1. Pre-season tropical activity is possible but hurricanes making US landfall before June 1 is extremely rare. In the satellite era, only a handful of pre-season systems have formed, and fewer still made US landfall as hurricanes.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Atlantic hurricane season: June 1 - November 30. Pre-season storms very rare.
- Pre-season tropical storms have formed (e.g., 2024, 2020) but rarely reach hurricane strength.
- US hurricane landfall before June 1: perhaps 2-3 times in recorded history.
- Water temperatures in March-May are typically too cool for hurricane development.
- 3% = small chance of early-season hurricane with climate change warming waters earlier.
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
Markets at extreme ends tend to be miscalibrated — people overestimate tiny risks or underestimate near-certainties.
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Kelly Criterion (per $1,000 bankroll)