Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Key Findings

• Historical airspace closures — Historically, Israel has rarely closed its entire airspace. Such closures are typically associated with major wars or significant military operations. The base rate for a complete airspace closure in Israel is low, as it has not occurred frequently in the past.
• Current geopolitical tensions — There are ongoing regional tensions involving Israel, including conflicts with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. However, these have not escalated to a level that would necessitate a complete airspace closure. Current evidence does not suggest an imminent large-scale military operation or internal threat that would trigger such a closure.
• Resolution Criteria — This market resolves to 'Yes' if Israel initiates a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace, by June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset, though limited exceptions are permitted. The closure must be initiated by Israel and not solely due to weather conditions. Otherwise, this market resolves to 'No'. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops, isolated regional closures, or restrictions imposed by entities other than Israel will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.