Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 27.0% vs the market's 3.7%, identifying a 23.3% edge on the YES side. Historically, Colombian presidents have a low rate of leaving office early due to the country's relatively stable democratic processes. The base rate for early departure is estimated around 10-15%. Gustavo Petro's approval ratings have fluctuated, with more disapproval than approval at the start of 2023. There are concerns about democratic backsliding and potential political instability, but no immediate threats of impeachment or resignation.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical base rate of Colombian presidents leaving office early — Historically, Colombian presidents have a low rate of leaving office early due to the country's relatively stable democratic processes. The base rate for early departure is estimated around 10-15%.
- Current political climate and approval ratings — Gustavo Petro's approval ratings have fluctuated, with more disapproval than approval at the start of 2023. There are concerns about democratic backsliding and potential political instability, but no immediate threats of impeachment or resignation.
- Probability of Petro leaving office early — Breaking down the probability: P(impeachment or resignation) × P(health issues) × P(other leaders leaving first). Each sub-probability is low, but combined they slightly increase the overall probability.
- Updating with current evidence — Starting with a base rate of 10-15%, the current political climate and approval ratings slightly increase the likelihood of early departure. Applying a likelihood ratio of 1.5x due to moderate evidence of instability.
- Resolution Criteria — This market resolves to 'YES' if Gustavo Petro is the *first* individual among the listed individuals to permanently cease occupying his office (President of Colombia) before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Permanent cessation means he is no longer in office, not temporarily suspended, and not in a caretaker role. It resolves to 'NO' if another listed individual permanently ceases occupying their office before Gustavo Petro does, or if Gustavo Petro does not permanently cease occupying his office by the deadline. If no listed individual permanently ceases occupying their office by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'None before 2027'.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including Next leader out of power before 2027? - Polymarket, Take Colombia's risk of democratic backsliding under Petro ..., The Resurgence of Gustavo Petro and the Colombian Left
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market is anchored to the current state and underestimates the probability of change.
Political markets are heavily influenced by wishful thinking from supporters of each side.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.