Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 45.0% vs the market's 21.3%, identifying a 23.7% edge on the YES side. Historically, the Strait of Hormuz sees significant ship traffic, often exceeding 150 ships per week. However, geopolitical tensions and conflicts have previously led to significant reductions in traffic. Recent reports indicate ongoing disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, including attacks on ships and GPS jamming. This has led to reduced traffic since February 2026, with some reports suggesting traffic has virtually stopped.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — Historically, the Strait of Hormuz sees significant ship traffic, often exceeding 150 ships per week. However, geopolitical tensions and conflicts have previously led to significant reductions in traffic.
- Current geopolitical tensions and disruptions — Recent reports indicate ongoing disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, including attacks on ships and GPS jamming. This has led to reduced traffic since February 2026, with some reports suggesting traffic has virtually stopped.
- Recent ship traffic data — From July 3 to July 5, 108 ships passed through the Strait, suggesting a potential weekly total close to or exceeding 150 if the trend continues.
- Data reliability issues — There are reports of AIS data coverage issues and potential manipulation, which could affect the accuracy of reported ship counts.
- Resolution Criteria — The market resolves to YES if the total number of transit calls reported by IMF Portwatch for the specified period is fewer than 150. It resolves to NO if the total is 150 or more.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including eventc10000004 - IMF PortWatch - International Monetary Fund, Ships Are Moving In and Out of the Persian Gulf, Easing Oil ..., Data & Methodology - IMF PortWatch
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market is anchored to the current state and underestimates the probability of change.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Near-expiry markets are susceptible to anchoring on the latest news cycle.