Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Key Findings

• Historical IPO Market Cap Ranges — Historically, large tech IPOs have seen significant market caps, but reaching a $1.0T to $1.5T range is unprecedented. The base rate for tech IPOs reaching such valuations is low.
• SpaceX's Current Valuation and Market Conditions — SpaceX's current valuation is reported at over $2T, suggesting that post-IPO, the market cap is likely to remain above $1.5T unless significant market corrections occur.
• Probability of IPO Completion and Market Cap Range — The probability of SpaceX completing its IPO is high (0.80), and achieving a market cap of at least $1.0T is also likely (0.70). However, the probability of the market cap not exceeding $1.5T is lower (0.60), leading to a combined probability of 0.336.
• Sequential Update with Evidence — Starting with a low base rate for such high valuations, the inside view evidence suggests a higher market cap than the target range, reinforcing a lower probability for the core claim.
• Resolution Criteria — The market resolves to YES if SpaceX's market cap is between $1.0T and $1.5T at the official closing price on the last trading day of the month in which it completes its IPO. It resolves to NO if the market cap is below $1.0T or above $1.5T, or if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027.
• 10 Sources Analyzed — Including IPO 101: Investing in IPOs | Fidelity, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) - Yahoo Finance, Prediction: 12 months from now, £5,000 in SpaceX stock could be ...