Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We believe the Category 4 hurricane US landfall market at 39% is overvalued. The historical base rate for a Cat 4+ US landfall in any given year is approximately 12-15%. While the 2025-2026 period features elevated SSTs (sea surface temperatures) that could amplify hurricane intensity, the specific requirement of Cat 4 at landfall (not just Cat 4 at peak) dramatically narrows the probability. Most major hurricanes weaken before landfall.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
Full Research Report
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.