Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Key Findings

• Historical shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz — Historically, over 30,000 vessels pass through the Strait annually, suggesting a high likelihood of at least 20 ships transiting on any given day.
• Current geopolitical tensions and energy demand — Current geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions could impact shipping, but the high demand for oil and gas supports continued traffic.
• Resolution Criteria — This market resolves to 'Yes' if, for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, the finalized daily number of 'Arrivals of Ships' for the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IMF Portwatch (https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730), is equal to or greater than 20. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Data must be finalized (i.e., the next day's data point is available) to be considered. If data for the final date (June 30, 2026) is not finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after its initial release, or if not all relevant data is released and finalized within 14 calendar days of June 30, 2026, the market resolves based on data published up to that point. Obvious data integrity issues may delay resolution for up to three calendar days (ET) to allow for corrections.
• 10 Sources Analyzed — Including eventc10000004 - IMF PortWatch - International Monetary Fund, A closer look at shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with Gulf ..., Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global oil markets - EIA