Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 97.0% vs the market's 32.9%, identifying a 64.1% edge on the YES side. Historically, over 30,000 vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz annually, averaging over 80 ships per day. This provides a strong base rate that supports the likelihood of at least 30 ships transiting on any given day. Despite geopolitical tensions, the strategic importance of the Strait for global oil and gas supplies suggests that disruptions are typically temporary. Current data shows regular high traffic, with daily transits often exceeding 30 ships.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical Transit Rates — Historically, over 30,000 vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz annually, averaging over 80 ships per day. This provides a strong base rate that supports the likelihood of at least 30 ships transiting on any given day.
- Current Geopolitical and Economic Factors — Despite geopolitical tensions, the strategic importance of the Strait for global oil and gas supplies suggests that disruptions are typically temporary. Current data shows regular high traffic, with daily transits often exceeding 30 ships.
- Resolution Criteria — The market resolves to 'Yes' if any finalized daily number of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or above 30. It resolves to 'No' if no such number is reached by the end of the specified period.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including Strait of Hormuz | Windward Daily Intelligence, Iran Conflict and the Strait of Hormuz: Impacts on Oil, Gas, and Other ..., eventc10000004 - IMF PortWatch - International Monetary Fund
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market is anchored to the current state and underestimates the probability of change.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.