Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 15.0% vs the market's 79.5%, identifying a 64.5% edge on the NO side. The historical base rate for direct military conflict between Israel and Iran is high, given the ongoing tensions and past incidents of military engagement. Recent evidence from sources indicates significant military actions and escalations, including joint strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, and retaliatory missile strikes by Iran on Israel.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical conflict between Israel and Iran — The historical base rate for direct military conflict between Israel and Iran is high, given the ongoing tensions and past incidents of military engagement.
- Recent escalations and military actions — Recent evidence from sources indicates significant military actions and escalations, including joint strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, and retaliatory missile strikes by Iran on Israel.
- Probability of no qualifying military action — P(no escalation) = 0.3, P(no accidental engagement) = 0.5, P(no political pressure leading to action) = 0.4. Combined probability: 0.3 * 0.5 * 0.4 = 0.06.
- Updating with recent evidence — Starting with a low base rate of ceasefire continuation due to historical conflict, recent escalations further decrease the likelihood of a ceasefire holding.
- Resolution Criteria — This market will resolve to 'Yes' if no qualifying military action is taken by either Israel or Iran against the other country between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM IRST. A 'qualifying military action' is defined as an air strike (including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones) or a surface-to-surface missile strike (including one-way attack drones, cruise or ballistic missiles) initiated by Israel or Iran that directly impacts the terrestrial territory of the other country. Actions such as munitions intercepted before impact, surface-to-air missile strikes, small-arms fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval/artillery fire, howitzers/mortars/rocket artillery, minor surface-to-surface strikes (short-range loitering munitions, FPV drones, ATGM strikes), or threats of force do not constitute a qualifying military action. If any such qualifying military action occurs and directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to 'No'.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including Twelve-Day War - Wikipedia, Iran Strikes Israel's Air Power Hub, Missiles Slam Strategic ..., The Israel-Iran Conflict: Q&A with RAND Experts
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Alpha Quality Factors
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Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.