How many votes to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair by May 30?: 51 or fewer
PredictIt market: How many votes to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair by May 30?: 51 or fewer
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We believe the PredictIt contract for Kevin Warsh being confirmed with 51 or fewer votes by May 30 is overvalued at 74%, with our estimate at 40%. This is a compound bet: it requires BOTH confirmation by May 30 AND a narrow margin. Our analysis suggests ~45% chance of confirmation by May 30 (slightly better than May 15 due to 15 extra days), and if confirmed, ~70% chance of ≤51 votes given Tillis' opposition and likely unanimous Democratic objection.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- If Confirmed, Likely Narrow — Tillis opposition + unanimous D opposition = 51-53 likely margin.
- But Confirmation by May 30 Isn't Certain — Same process issues as May 15, with 15 extra days. P ≈ 0.45.
- Vote Bracket Ambiguity — '51 or fewer' could include 50 or 49 if Republicans defect, making the bracket wider.
- 75 Days vs Historical 90+ Days — Average Fed Chair confirmation takes 3+ months. 75 days is still aggressive.
- Compound Probability Rule — P(A AND B) = P(A) × P(B|A) = 0.45 × 0.85 = 0.38, rounded to 40%.
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
Political markets are heavily influenced by wishful thinking from supporters of each side.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
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Kelly Criterion (per $1,000 bankroll)