Will Rubio and Vance both announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictIt market: Will Rubio and Vance both announce a run for President before 2028?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We estimate 30% for BOTH Rubio and Vance announcing presidential runs before 2028. The key word is BOTH. Vance is very likely to run (~80%). But Rubio has publicly stated he would 'support Vance if Vance runs' — classic political deference. A 'Draft Rubio' movement exists among some donors, but Rubio challenging sitting VP Vance would be an extraordinary breach of Republican protocol. BOTH announcing requires mutual abandonment of deference.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Rubio publicly defers to Vance: told reporters he would 'support Vance' if VP runs for president.
- Vance is the heavy favorite: tops all early 2028 Republican polls. ~80% chance he announces.
- 'Draft Rubio' movement: some donors and MAGA figures, but no formal campaign infrastructure.
- Trump has polled donors on Rubio vs. Vance, but has made no endorsement.
- BOTH announcing requires Rubio to abandon deference AND risk splitting Trump coalition.
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Human Bias Detected
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Political markets are heavily influenced by wishful thinking from supporters of each side.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
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