Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 24.0% vs the market's 56.0%, identifying a 32.0% edge on the NO side. The historical base rate for any given year being the hottest on record is low, given the long history of temperature records. However, recent years have shown a trend of increasing temperatures, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. The presence of a strong El Niño event in 2026 could significantly increase global temperatures. However, the ongoing La Niña and predictions of 2026 being similar or slightly cooler than 2025 suggest mixed signals.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical Temperature Records — The historical base rate for any given year being the hottest on record is low, given the long history of temperature records. However, recent years have shown a trend of increasing temperatures, with 2024 being the hottest year on record.
- Current Climate Catalysts — The presence of a strong El Niño event in 2026 could significantly increase global temperatures. However, the ongoing La Niña and predictions of 2026 being similar or slightly cooler than 2025 suggest mixed signals.
- Sub-questions Analysis — The probability of 2026 exceeding previous temperature records is moderate due to climate change trends, but the impact of climate events and human activities is uncertain. Technological advancements are unlikely to have a significant impact by 2026.
- Updating with Evidence — Starting with the Manifold Market baseline of 24%, the evidence from climate reports and predictions does not strongly deviate from this baseline. The likelihood of 2026 being the hottest year is tempered by mixed climate event predictions and recent temperature trends.
- Resolution Criteria — The market resolves to YES if 2026 is ranked as the hottest year based on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index; otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including Monthly Climate Reports | Global Climate Report | April 2026, Summer 2026 Heatwave Shatters Temperature Records In These ..., Climate Prediction Center
Full Research Report
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.