Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 9.6% vs the market's 79.0%, identifying a 69.4% edge on the NO side. Historically, an average of 2.6 typhoons reach the main islands of Japan per year. This provides a base rate for typhoon landfall in Japan. Super Typhoon Dolphin is currently a strong storm with fluctuating intensity. Its trajectory is westward, but there is uncertainty about its path towards Japan.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical Typhoon Landfall Rates — Historically, an average of 2.6 typhoons reach the main islands of Japan per year. This provides a base rate for typhoon landfall in Japan.
- Current Trajectory and Strength of Super Typhoon Dolphin — Super Typhoon Dolphin is currently a strong storm with fluctuating intensity. Its trajectory is westward, but there is uncertainty about its path towards Japan.
- Resolution Criteria — The market resolves 'Yes' if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation crosses the coastline of any Japanese territory on or before August 15, 2026, as confirmed by JMA advisories or credible reporting. It resolves 'No' if the storm is declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed before this date without making landfall.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including Historic Super Typhoon Dolphin hits Category 5 strength in the Northwest ..., Japan Meteorological Agency｜Tropical Cyclone Information, Typhoons in Japan
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Near-expiry markets are susceptible to anchoring on the latest news cycle.