Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 33.6% vs the market's 55.0%, identifying a 21.4% edge on the NO side. Historically, the Strait of Hormuz has seen significant ship traffic, with over 30,000 vessels annually, translating to an average of about 82 ships per day. However, geopolitical tensions have caused fluctuations. Current evidence suggests an increase in ship traffic after a period of stagnation, but geopolitical tensions remain a risk. The potential for spikes in traffic due to geopolitical events or increased oil demand is present.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — Historically, the Strait of Hormuz has seen significant ship traffic, with over 30,000 vessels annually, translating to an average of about 82 ships per day. However, geopolitical tensions have caused fluctuations.
- Current geopolitical tensions and shipping trends — Current evidence suggests an increase in ship traffic after a period of stagnation, but geopolitical tensions remain a risk. The potential for spikes in traffic due to geopolitical events or increased oil demand is present.
- Resolution Criteria — The market resolves to 'Yes' if any finalized daily transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz reach or exceed 40 ships. It resolves to 'No' if no such daily figure is reported by June 30, 2026.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including IMF - Strait of Hormuz - Number of Ships & Ship Tonnage - MacroMicro, chokepoint6 - IMF PortWatch - International Monetary Fund, Iran Conflict and the Strait of Hormuz: Impacts on Oil, Gas, and Other ...
Full Research Report
Unlock the complete analysis including probability assessment, Bayesian calculations, resolution rigor analysis, and strategic positioning recommendations across 4+ dimensions.
Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Near-expiry markets are susceptible to anchoring on the latest news cycle.