Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 5.0% vs the market's 77.5%, identifying a 72.5% edge on the NO side. Historically, ceasefires in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and Israel, are fragile and often short-lived. The base rate for a sustained 14-day ceasefire in such conflicts is low. Recent escalations, including the Twelve-Day War and ongoing military actions, suggest a high likelihood of continued conflict. Diplomatic efforts have been attempted but have not resulted in a lasting ceasefire.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical base rate of ceasefires in Middle Eastern conflicts — Historically, ceasefires in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and Israel, are fragile and often short-lived. The base rate for a sustained 14-day ceasefire in such conflicts is low.
- Current geopolitical tensions and recent military actions — Recent escalations, including the Twelve-Day War and ongoing military actions, suggest a high likelihood of continued conflict. Diplomatic efforts have been attempted but have not resulted in a lasting ceasefire.
- Resolution Criteria — The market resolves to 'Yes' if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action as defined, starting at any time before May 15, 2026. It resolves to 'No' if such a period does not occur.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including Iran's War With Israel and the United States | Global Conflict Tracker, US-Israel war on Iran | Today's latest from Al Jazeera, Israel-Iran Conflict, U.S. Strikes, and Ceasefire | Congress.gov
Full Research Report
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.