Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 35.0% vs the market's 87.5%, identifying a 52.5% edge on the NO side. Historically, conflicts involving Iran and Israel/US have been prolonged with intermittent periods of reduced hostilities but rarely a complete cessation of military actions for extended periods. The base rate for a 14-day period without qualifying military action in such conflicts is low. The current situation involves active military engagements with frequent retaliatory strikes by both sides, as evidenced by recent reports of airstrikes and missile attacks. This ongoing conflict reduces the likelihood of a 14-day period without qualifying military action.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical base rate of conflicts ending with a ceasefire or truce — Historically, conflicts involving Iran and Israel/US have been prolonged with intermittent periods of reduced hostilities but rarely a complete cessation of military actions for extended periods. The base rate for a 14-day period without qualifying military action in such conflicts is low.
- Current escalation and military actions — The current situation involves active military engagements with frequent retaliatory strikes by both sides, as evidenced by recent reports of airstrikes and missile attacks. This ongoing conflict reduces the likelihood of a 14-day period without qualifying military action.
- Diplomatic efforts and geopolitical shifts — While there are some diplomatic efforts and potential back-channel communications, the current geopolitical climate and leadership decisions in Iran, Israel, and the US suggest limited immediate prospects for a significant de-escalation.
- Resolution Criteria — This market resolves to 'Yes' if, at any point between market creation and 2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00, there is a continuous 14-day period during which no 'qualifying military action' occurs. A 'qualifying military action' is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions, but excludes cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will qualify as Iranian military actions (attacks by proxy forces do not count). The 14-day period must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. Otherwise, this market resolves to 'No'.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including Iran's War With Israel and the United States | Global Conflict Tracker, Visualizing Iran's Escalation Strategy - CSIS, Timeline of the 2026 Iran war - Wikipedia
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Markets at extreme ends tend to be miscalibrated — people overestimate tiny risks or underestimate near-certainties.