Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 20, 2029?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We believe the Kalshi contract for the Department of Education being eliminated before January 20, 2029 is overvalued at 17%, with our estimate at 5%. While Trump signed a dismantling EO in March 2025, a judge blocked mass layoffs in May 2025. The DOE was created by Congress and requires Congressional action to eliminate. The Massie bill (H.R. 899) proposes termination by Dec 31, 2026 — but it has no committee vote, no floor vote, and would face Senate filibuster.
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Human Bias Detected
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Political markets are heavily influenced by wishful thinking from supporters of each side.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.