Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We believe the Kalshi contract for Trump leaving office before January 20, 2029 is overvalued at 43%, with our estimate at 10%. No sitting US president has been removed from office involuntarily in 247 years of American history. Trump, in his second term, faces no impeachment proceedings, has a Republican majority in Congress, and shows no signs of health decline or voluntary resignation. The 43% price reflects the persistent 'Trump chaos premium' — markets systematically overprice dramatic Trum
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
Political markets are heavily influenced by wishful thinking from supporters of each side.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.