🌍 WorldKalshimedium confidence
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026?
Alpha Opportunity
23/100
Market Price58%Kalshi
Analyst Estimate56%Analyst research
=
Your Edge+2.0%Bet NO
RecommendedNOMar 15, 2027
Trade on Kalshi →Alpha Thesis
📊 Dr. Sarah Chen🔬 Dr. Aisha Patel🧠 Marcus Webb⚖️ James KowalskiUpdated 2026-04-04
48/100
📊Free Summary
We evaluate the 58% probability for this geopolitical market, which is influenced by the global geopolitical environment including the US-Iran war, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and shifting alliance structures. Our model estimates 56%, generating a 2% edge. The market appears overvalued at current levels.
📐Key Metrics
1
58.0% vs. 56.0%Market vs. AI EstimateThe market is pricing higher than our research suggests, creating a 2.0% edge.
Key Findings
🔒
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Edge Magnitude+2.0% raw edge — Small inefficiency
13
Liquidity Health$13K available — Thinner market, size carefully
0
Volume Activity$1K 24h volume — Lower activity, watch for stale pricing
0
Time ValueExpires in 10 months — Longer horizon, more uncertainty
40
Analyst Confidencemedium confidence — Moderate conviction
60
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
🧠
Availability Bias
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
Market Data
Liquidity$13K
24h Volume$1K
Expected Return4.8%
Resolution DateMar 15, 2027
Time to Expiry10 months
Risk Levelhigh
Payoff Scenarios
InvestWinLose
$100+$138-$100
$250+$345-$250
$500+$690-$500
$1000+$1381-$1000