Markets›World›Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
🌍 WorldPolymarketmedium confidence

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Alpha Opportunity

46/100
Market Price14%Polymarket
Analyst Estimate13%Analyst research
=
Your Edge+1.5%Bet NO
RecommendedNOMay 27, 2026
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Alpha Thesis

📊 Dr. Sarah Chen🔬 Dr. Aisha Patel🧠 Marcus Webb⚖️ James KowalskiUpdated 2026-04-04
50/100
📊Free Summary

We evaluate the 14% probability for this geopolitical market, which is directly connected to the ongoing US-Iran war (since Feb 28, 2026). The Strait of Hormuz closure, Operation Epic Fury, and regional escalation dynamics. Our model estimates 13%, generating a 2% edge. The market appears overvalued at current levels.

📐Key Metrics

1
14.5% vs. 13.0%Market vs. AI EstimateThe market is pricing higher than our research suggests, creating a 1.5% edge.

Key Findings

    🔒

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    Alpha Quality Factors

    Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is

    Edge Magnitude+1.5% raw edge — Small inefficiency
    10
    Liquidity Health$403K available — Thinner market, size carefully
    8
    Volume Activity$534K 24h volume — Active trading interest
    53
    Time ValueExpires in Today — Near-term catalyst
    100
    Analyst Confidencemedium confidence — Moderate conviction
    60

    Human Bias Detected

    Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity

    🧠
    Recency Anchoring

    Near-expiry markets are susceptible to anchoring on the latest news cycle.

    🧠
    Extreme Probability Neglect

    Markets at extreme ends tend to be miscalibrated — people overestimate tiny risks or underestimate near-certainties.

    Market Data

    Liquidity$403K
    24h Volume$534K
    Expected Return1.8%
    Resolution DateMay 27, 2026
    Time to ExpiryToday
    Risk Levelhigh

    Payoff Scenarios

    InvestWinLose
    $100+$17-$100
    $250+$42-$250
    $500+$85-$500
    $1000+$170-$1000

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