🌍 WorldPolymarketmedium confidence
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Alpha Opportunity
21/100
Market Price5%Polymarket
Analyst Estimate4%Analyst research
=
Your Edge+0.5%Bet NO
RecommendedNOJan 1, 2027
Trade on Polymarket →Alpha Thesis
📊 Dr. Sarah Chen🔬 Dr. Aisha Patel🧠 Marcus Webb⚖️ James KowalskiUpdated 2026-04-04
50/100
📊Free Summary
We evaluate the 4% probability for this geopolitical market, which is directly connected to the ongoing US-Iran war (since Feb 28, 2026). The Strait of Hormuz closure, Operation Epic Fury, and regional escalation dynamics. Our model estimates 4%, generating a 0% edge. The market appears overvalued at current levels.
📐Key Metrics
1
4.5% vs. 4.0%Market vs. AI EstimateThe market is pricing higher than our research suggests, creating a 0.5% edge.
Key Findings
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Edge Magnitude+0.5% raw edge — Small inefficiency
3
Liquidity Health$30K available — Thinner market, size carefully
1
Volume Activity$389 24h volume — Lower activity, watch for stale pricing
0
Time ValueExpires in 7 months — Longer horizon, more uncertainty
40
Analyst Confidencemedium confidence — Moderate conviction
60
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
🧠
Extreme Probability Neglect
Markets at extreme ends tend to be miscalibrated — people overestimate tiny risks or underestimate near-certainties.
Market Data
Liquidity$30K
24h Volume$389
Expected Return0.5%
Resolution DateJan 1, 2027
Time to Expiry7 months
Risk Levelhigh
Payoff Scenarios
InvestWinLose
$100+$5-$100
$250+$12-$250
$500+$24-$500
$1000+$47-$1000