Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We believe the Kalshi contract for Trump being impeached AND removed from office is absurdly overvalued at 23%, with our estimate at 1%. This requires a House majority to impeach (Republicans control the House) AND 67 Senate votes to convict (Republicans hold 53 seats). The math makes this virtually impossible: 20+ Republican senators would need to vote to remove their own party's president. This has NEVER happened in American history — not for Johnson, not for Clinton, not for Trump's two prior
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Key Findings
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
Political markets are heavily influenced by wishful thinking from supporters of each side.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.