Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 6.0% vs the market's 89.5%, identifying a 83.5% edge on the NO side. The historical base rate for a long-term ceasefire between Israel and Iran is low due to their ongoing geopolitical and military confrontations. Recent military actions and ongoing tensions, as well as the involvement of proxies, suggest a high likelihood of continued conflict.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical conflict between Israel and Iran — The historical base rate for a long-term ceasefire between Israel and Iran is low due to their ongoing geopolitical and military confrontations.
- Current geopolitical tensions and recent military actions — Recent military actions and ongoing tensions, as well as the involvement of proxies, suggest a high likelihood of continued conflict.
- Probability of ceasefire agreement and maintenance — The probability of both agreeing to a ceasefire is low (0.40), maintaining it without violations is even lower (0.30), and external factors supporting it are uncertain (0.50).
- Sequential update with evidence — Starting with a low base rate and updating with current evidence of tensions and historical patterns, the probability remains low.
- Resolution Criteria — This market resolves to 'Yes' if no qualifying military action occurs between Israel and Iran, directly impacting the other's terrestrial territory, through July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM IRST. It resolves to 'No' if one or more qualifying military actions occur. A 'qualifying military action' is defined as an air strike (bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones) or a surface-to-surface missile strike (one-way attack drones, cruise/ballistic missiles) initiated by Israel or Iran, directly impacting the terrestrial territory (including internal waters) of the other country. Actions that do not qualify include: munitions intercepted before impact, surface-to-air strikes, small-arms fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval/artillery fire, howitzers/mortars/rocket artillery, minor surface-to-surface strikes (short-range loitering munitions, FPV drones, ATGM), and unexecuted threats. Resolution will be based on official information from the governments/militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting, with a 3-day period for consensus in case of conflicting reports.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including Iran's War With Israel and the United States | Global Conflict Tracker, Iran–Israel conflict, Iran-Israel: Direct Confrontation Opens a New Era
Full Research Report
Unlock the complete analysis including probability assessment, Bayesian calculations, resolution rigor analysis, and strategic positioning recommendations across 6+ dimensions.
Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Near-expiry markets are susceptible to anchoring on the latest news cycle.