Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
We believe the Kalshi contract for Trump leaving office before 2028 is overvalued at 34%, with our estimate at 5%. Leaving office requires resignation, removal (impeachment + conviction), or death/incapacity. Resignation is unprecedented for a president in strong political standing. Conviction requires 67 Senate votes — impossible with R majority. Death/incapacity is low probability for his age group over a 2-year period.
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Key Findings
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
Political markets are heavily influenced by wishful thinking from supporters of each side.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.