Markets›Politics›Will Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezu…
🏛️ PoliticsKalshihigh confidence

Will Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Alpha Opportunity

39/100
Market Price9%Kalshi
Analyst Estimate1%Analyst research
=
Your Edge+8.0%Bet NO
RecommendedNOMar 15, 2027
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Alpha Thesis

📊 Dr. Sarah Chen🔬 Dr. Aisha Patel🧠 Marcus Webb⚖️ James KowalskiUpdated 2026-04-04
99/100
📊Free Summary

Maduro was CAPTURED by US forces on January 3, 2026 and is in a New York federal court facing narco-terrorism charges. He CANNOT be head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026. He has been replaced by acting president Delcy Rodríguez. This market is essentially resolved NO.

📐Key Metrics

1
9.0% vs. 1.0%Market vs. AI EstimateThe market is pricing higher than our research suggests, creating a 8.0% edge.

Key Findings

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    Alpha Quality Factors

    Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is

    Edge Magnitude+8.0% raw edge — Moderate opportunity
    53
    Liquidity Health$23K available — Thinner market, size carefully
    0
    Volume Activity$2K 24h volume — Lower activity, watch for stale pricing
    0
    Time ValueExpires in 10 months — Longer horizon, more uncertainty
    40
    Analyst Confidencehigh confidence — Strong conviction
    100

    Human Bias Detected

    Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity

    🧠
    Partisan Bias

    Political markets are heavily influenced by wishful thinking from supporters of each side.

    🧠
    Extreme Probability Neglect

    Markets at extreme ends tend to be miscalibrated — people overestimate tiny risks or underestimate near-certainties.

    Market Data

    Liquidity$23K
    24h Volume$2K
    Expected Return8.8%
    Resolution DateMar 15, 2027
    Time to Expiry10 months
    Risk Levelmoderate

    Payoff Scenarios

    InvestWinLose
    $100+$10-$100
    $250+$25-$250
    $500+$49-$500
    $1000+$99-$1000

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