Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 6.0% vs the market's 83.0%, identifying a 77.0% edge on the NO side. Historically, ceasefires between Israel and Iran, or involving Iran in regional conflicts, have been short-lived due to deep-seated hostilities and geopolitical tensions. Recent evidence indicates ongoing military actions between the US and Iran, with Israel poised for escalation. The ceasefire appears to have already collapsed.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical ceasefire durability between Israel and Iran — Historically, ceasefires between Israel and Iran, or involving Iran in regional conflicts, have been short-lived due to deep-seated hostilities and geopolitical tensions.
- Current military actions and statements — Recent evidence indicates ongoing military actions between the US and Iran, with Israel poised for escalation. The ceasefire appears to have already collapsed.
- Resolution Criteria — The market resolves to 'Yes' if no qualifying military actions occur between Israel and Iran until 11:59 PM IRST on July 22, 2026. It resolves to 'No' if either country takes a qualifying military action against the other before that time.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including 2026 Iran war ceasefire, Israel Daily News - July 13, 2026 | U.S. Pounds Iran In New ..., 2026 Iran war | Deal, Explained, United States, Israel, Strait ...
Full Research Report
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Near-expiry markets are susceptible to anchoring on the latest news cycle.