Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Alpha Opportunity
Alpha Thesis
Our AI estimates a true probability of 35.0% vs the market's 64.0%, identifying a 29.0% edge on the NO side. Historically, ceasefires in the Middle East, especially involving Iran, Israel, and the US, have been fragile and often short-lived. The base rate for a successful, sustained ceasefire in this context is low, given the complex geopolitical dynamics and history of conflict. Recent reports indicate ongoing military actions and a fragile ceasefire. The presence of US troops and recent Israeli strikes suggest continued tensions. However, there are signs of reduced Iranian military capabilities and calls for de-escalation, which could support a temporary cessation of hostilities.
📐Key Metrics
Key Findings
- Historical ceasefire success rates in Middle Eastern conflicts — Historically, ceasefires in the Middle East, especially involving Iran, Israel, and the US, have been fragile and often short-lived. The base rate for a successful, sustained ceasefire in this context is low, given the complex geopolitical dynamics and history of conflict.
- Current geopolitical and military dynamics — Recent reports indicate ongoing military actions and a fragile ceasefire. The presence of US troops and recent Israeli strikes suggest continued tensions. However, there are signs of reduced Iranian military capabilities and calls for de-escalation, which could support a temporary cessation of hostilities.
- Probability of 14-day peace — P(ceasefire holds) = P(US/Israel halt actions) × P(Iran halts actions) × P(no proxy actions). Each sub-probability is low due to ongoing tensions and historical patterns.
- Sequential update with evidence — Starting with a low base rate, the evidence of ongoing military actions and fragile ceasefire slightly increases the probability of a temporary peace, but not significantly.
- Resolution Criteria — This market resolves to 'Yes' if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States, that begins at any time between market creation and April 15, 2026, and continues uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. A 'military action' is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions; proxy attacks do not count. Otherwise, this market resolves to 'No'.
- 10 Sources Analyzed — Including Timeline of the 2026 Iran war - Wikipedia, Israel's massive strike on Lebanon strains US and Iran's uneasy ceasefire, Iran: UN experts call for de-escalation and accountability | OHCHR
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Alpha Quality Factors
Criteria that determine how exploitable this mispricing is
Human Bias Detected
Cognitive biases creating this alpha opportunity
The market overweights vivid, recent events, making this outcome feel more likely than it actually is.
The crowd may lack specialized knowledge that narrows the true probability range.
Near-expiry markets are susceptible to anchoring on the latest news cycle.