US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Key Findings

• Historical peace agreements between adversarial nations — Historically, peace agreements between adversarial nations with long-standing conflicts and no formal diplomatic relations, like the US and Iran, are rare and complex. The base rate for such agreements is low.
• Current diplomatic and geopolitical context — Current evidence suggests ongoing tensions, with no formal diplomatic relations since 1980, and recent escalations in regional conflicts. The US continues to apply economic and diplomatic pressure, and Iran's nuclear program remains a contentious issue.
• Resolution Criteria — This market resolves to 'Yes' if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the United States and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal. A permanent peace deal is defined as any agreement explicitly indicating that military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities on a lasting basis will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered established if either: 1) The US and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement meeting the criteria, OR 2) Both governments provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Official information from the US and Iranian governments will be the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source.
• 10 Sources Analyzed — Including U.S. Continues Economic and Diplomatic Pressure on Iran, Obstacles to ending war come into focus as US and Iran ... - CNN, US and Iran: A brief history of how decades of mistrust and bad ...